This Week: Retail Earnings Get Messy

A worrying pattern has emerged recently where retailers are reporting weaker sales, lowering their expectations for the rest of the year and predicting more frequent and deeper discounts. Macy’s and Estée Lauder gave dour outlooks for the remainder of 2024 last week, and Urban Outfitters on Thursday said they would need to promote their way out of an unexpected sales slump.

There are signs that the US economy is slowing down, including an uptick in unemployment. That doesn’t mean we’re headed for a recession — US retail sales were strong as recently as July — and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely starting in September, could keep people spending. The S&P 500 is near a record high.

All that to say, we’ll learn in the coming months whether these dour forecasts from major retailers are genuine warning signs or examples of shrewd expectations management. What’s clear is that this week’s onslaught of earnings from major brands and retailers will be bumpy.

Gap Inc., which reports Thursday, is in many ways the perfect bellwether for this turbulent period. The company is powering ahead with its ambitious rebrand, including a fall campaign fronted by the singer Troye Sivan announced last week. Sales at all four Gap Inc. brands rose in the first quarter, beating forecasts. Investors are optimistic the best is yet to come; the company’s stock (which received a long-overdue makeover last week when it changed its ticker symbol to GAP) has risen nearly 20 percent this year.

Attempting to sell consumers on a new brand identity, and ideally convince them to pay more too, is infinitely harder in a down market (just ask Gucci). If Gap can deliver in the more turbulent second quarter, CEO Richard Dickson’s turnaround may truly be taking hold.

Another retailer to watch is Abercrombie, which reports Wednesday. If Gap is Gucci, Abercrombie is Miu Miu — too hot to care about trivial concerns like the global economy. In the first quarter, the company’s sales shot up 22 percent. Watch for what executives have to say about the strength of back-to-school sales, and whether they will need to lean on discounts to keep the good times going.

Other highlights for the week include PVH, which like Gap is hoping to prove with its earnings on Tuesday that a turnaround of Calvin Klein has legs. Nordstrom also reports that day. Thursday sees Victoria’s Secret report for the first time since announcing Hillary Super as its new CEO (she doesn’t start until Sept. 9, however), plus Lululemon, which is looking for its next act as the pandemic’s athleisure boom fades into memory.

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